Import & Export

There is a restriction on MEIS scheme (export benefit scheme) by the government of India. This will affect the price levels and offers on Indian Mint products. The MEIS module has been blocked from accepting new applications for shipping bills as of July 23, 2020. It is suggested to review MEIS rates & coverage for shipping bills with Let Export Order January 4, 2020 onwards.

Harvesting

Harvesting of Arvensis mint is complete. Production this year is somewhere between 60,000 MT – 65,000 MT of oil and estimates of carryover stocks are 10,000 MT, overall there is 75,000MT of crude mint oil. Generally global demand is roughly 38,000MT of oil, meaning we will have an excess of oil availability during next year as well.

Heavy rainfall affected 2-3 areas, but did not impact the overall production figures as there was a good yield of golden strain arvensis. We will also see fresh crop being harvested in coming months from the areas Konch, Chattarpur, etc.

Demand & Pricing

General uncertainty surrounding the initial stages of the COVID-19 situation led to a high demand, as producers purchased materials to ensure production. All now have a surplus of stocks and are desperate to sell. We are observing quite low offers from exporters; a trend we expect to continue. This lack of demand is creating pressure on pricing — which as of now are relatively stable with a slight downwards trend.

With the pandemic still a factor, there is uncertainty on the production cycles at manufacturing sites, which may lead to delayed shipments on occasion. This could result in slight price movements intermittently. Only a lock-down situation will cause prices to increase. Please see Figure 1 for year-to-date price trends.

Figure 1

Mint Market Update - August 3, 2020 Blog Image